These were my predictions from before. I think Hasina or her son will return to politics by the 2030s or by the 2035 at the latest. Although I think her son will have a different support base than Hasina. His support base will be the fintechs, software and engineering design outsourcing sectors and not the industrialists and small farmers.
Hasina will never return to Bangladesh politics. It's hard to make a political comeback after you have fled on a helicopter leaving your partymen behind. And she will be well in her 80s by 2030. Her son will never be in politics. No one in AL had anything nice to say about him even a decade ago.
If they can find some relatively untainted individuals, AL can win 30-40 seats in the next election (under the current system). In five years time, Radwan Siddiq might take the party leadership. That's their best case scenario.
Hasina came to politics after her father had caused a famine and tried to create a one party communist dictatorship. To my knowledge she has never had a real job outside of politics. Compared to Hasina in the 90s, her son seems like a much more viable candidate.
Yunus is also in his 80s. Do you think someone else in his family will try to form a party? Or perhaps the leaders of the BRAC NGO will finally try to make their own as a political party.
There is a self-evident difference between a completely fresh-faced victim of a brutal massacre that left her family dead versus an individual widely disliked in his own party whose mother committed a brutal massacre and then fled.
I don't think Yunus or any NGOwallah will float a party, but Bangladesh's entire urban elite wants to see a new party composed of non-Islamist former students. As I noted above, it would be hard -- but not impossible - for them to get a few dozen seats.
1) I'm skeptical of your claim that the urban Muslims don't want an islamist leader.
2) There has been an informal norm against the leadership of the NGOs from entering politics. I had considered this to be a positive development, especially after reading about the "party society" of West Bengal. But Yunus entering politics will set a precedent that will have long run consequences.
3) The dictator of Philippines also fled the country but his son came back to power recently. The specific details might be different though. I'm not too familiar with Philippino politics.
1) that was ten years ago and people have short memories. Also the composition of the population has changed significantly since 2013 due to the demographic dividend.
2) do you think someone from BRAC will enter politics?
Gen Z is the largest generation in the country and hence their vote will be a significant force in politics. We're basically like the boomers of America.
However, I doubt the student politics will manage to create a party any time soon. Leaderless movements never do. The media pundits you mentioned will also never manage to become politicians. Despite what they claim the skills don't overlap.
To come back to the American boomer analogy, there was a lot of activism in the 60s. They even managed to be stop a war in the 70s and kick out a sitting President. But you got your first major boomer politicians only in the 80s and 90s. I'm pretty sure Reagan was the first President of America who didn't serve in WW2.
So you'll start to see the first Gen Z politicians in the 2040s.
I agree with your observation on the media personalities. As for the party -- they don't need to create a party that is capable of coming to power in the next election. If they can get 30 urban seats in 2025, that would be a huge achievement and set them up for the 2030s. This won't be easy, but nor is it impossible under the current electoral system.
When these new parties have to compromise with mainstream parties to get anything done or when these people turn out to be as corrupt as anyone else (because why won't they be) they'll lose much of their support base. Again these leaderless movements without a strong idealogical backing doesn't go anywhere. "Anti discrimination" what a pile of second rate horseshit. I might as well run on hugs and kisses.
Even media discussion around institutional changes are all second rate. Like we should be "anti corruption". As if there is a magic button somewhere?
Can you point to me any serious reform proposal that isn't more than a couple of buzzwords like "anti corruption", "anti discrimination" and worst of all "people power"?
On the economic front -- Governor of Bangladesh Bank has outlined macro and banking policy framework. On other stuff, wait till various commissions / task forces / committees produce their reports.
The new governor will just implement the IMF plan. He literally worked for them in the past. He'll unfuck the NPL situation and the build up the forex situation. That's about it. Are they going to privatise the banks? No. Are they going to privatise the loss making state owned enterprises? No. Are they going to get rid of the ICB and price controls on the stock market? No. Are they going to replace TCB with direct cash transfers for the poor? No.
This government has even launched SMART price controls (if there could be such a thing) for food and other essentials. They're called smart because they're region adjusted.
Before the year is over the government will shoving jute products down everyone's throats.
I have said this before and I'm saying this again Bangladeshis don't think about systems and incentives. They're just waiting for a great Messiah to sort out their problems for them.
The islamists of Bangladesh are a unique breed of trash. At least Turkish islamists are more rational and want their country to be the first amongst equals in the Muslim world. Bangladeshi islamists want to reduce the country to a tier-3 colony.
https://jrahman.substack.com/p/a-podcast-on-the-revolution/comment/64962166?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=o2bbq
These were my predictions from before. I think Hasina or her son will return to politics by the 2030s or by the 2035 at the latest. Although I think her son will have a different support base than Hasina. His support base will be the fintechs, software and engineering design outsourcing sectors and not the industrialists and small farmers.
Hasina will never return to Bangladesh politics. It's hard to make a political comeback after you have fled on a helicopter leaving your partymen behind. And she will be well in her 80s by 2030. Her son will never be in politics. No one in AL had anything nice to say about him even a decade ago.
If they can find some relatively untainted individuals, AL can win 30-40 seats in the next election (under the current system). In five years time, Radwan Siddiq might take the party leadership. That's their best case scenario.
Hasina came to politics after her father had caused a famine and tried to create a one party communist dictatorship. To my knowledge she has never had a real job outside of politics. Compared to Hasina in the 90s, her son seems like a much more viable candidate.
Yunus is also in his 80s. Do you think someone else in his family will try to form a party? Or perhaps the leaders of the BRAC NGO will finally try to make their own as a political party.
There is a self-evident difference between a completely fresh-faced victim of a brutal massacre that left her family dead versus an individual widely disliked in his own party whose mother committed a brutal massacre and then fled.
I don't think Yunus or any NGOwallah will float a party, but Bangladesh's entire urban elite wants to see a new party composed of non-Islamist former students. As I noted above, it would be hard -- but not impossible - for them to get a few dozen seats.
1) I'm skeptical of your claim that the urban Muslims don't want an islamist leader.
2) There has been an informal norm against the leadership of the NGOs from entering politics. I had considered this to be a positive development, especially after reading about the "party society" of West Bengal. But Yunus entering politics will set a precedent that will have long run consequences.
3) The dictator of Philippines also fled the country but his son came back to power recently. The specific details might be different though. I'm not too familiar with Philippino politics.
1. Fear of Islamists is the main reason why the urban elite backed Hasina's turn to one party rule in 2013.
2. Yunus is not entering party politics.
3. Fair enough. Hasina's son may have a shot in the 2060s.
1) that was ten years ago and people have short memories. Also the composition of the population has changed significantly since 2013 due to the demographic dividend.
2) do you think someone from BRAC will enter politics?
3) my bet is still 2030-2035.
Gen Z is the largest generation in the country and hence their vote will be a significant force in politics. We're basically like the boomers of America.
However, I doubt the student politics will manage to create a party any time soon. Leaderless movements never do. The media pundits you mentioned will also never manage to become politicians. Despite what they claim the skills don't overlap.
To come back to the American boomer analogy, there was a lot of activism in the 60s. They even managed to be stop a war in the 70s and kick out a sitting President. But you got your first major boomer politicians only in the 80s and 90s. I'm pretty sure Reagan was the first President of America who didn't serve in WW2.
So you'll start to see the first Gen Z politicians in the 2040s.
I agree with your observation on the media personalities. As for the party -- they don't need to create a party that is capable of coming to power in the next election. If they can get 30 urban seats in 2025, that would be a huge achievement and set them up for the 2030s. This won't be easy, but nor is it impossible under the current electoral system.
When these new parties have to compromise with mainstream parties to get anything done or when these people turn out to be as corrupt as anyone else (because why won't they be) they'll lose much of their support base. Again these leaderless movements without a strong idealogical backing doesn't go anywhere. "Anti discrimination" what a pile of second rate horseshit. I might as well run on hugs and kisses.
Even media discussion around institutional changes are all second rate. Like we should be "anti corruption". As if there is a magic button somewhere?
They are lot less naive or leaderless than you might think.
Can you point to me any serious reform proposal that isn't more than a couple of buzzwords like "anti corruption", "anti discrimination" and worst of all "people power"?
On the economic front -- Governor of Bangladesh Bank has outlined macro and banking policy framework. On other stuff, wait till various commissions / task forces / committees produce their reports.
The new governor will just implement the IMF plan. He literally worked for them in the past. He'll unfuck the NPL situation and the build up the forex situation. That's about it. Are they going to privatise the banks? No. Are they going to privatise the loss making state owned enterprises? No. Are they going to get rid of the ICB and price controls on the stock market? No. Are they going to replace TCB with direct cash transfers for the poor? No.
This government has even launched SMART price controls (if there could be such a thing) for food and other essentials. They're called smart because they're region adjusted.
Before the year is over the government will shoving jute products down everyone's throats.
I have said this before and I'm saying this again Bangladeshis don't think about systems and incentives. They're just waiting for a great Messiah to sort out their problems for them.
The islamists of Bangladesh are a unique breed of trash. At least Turkish islamists are more rational and want their country to be the first amongst equals in the Muslim world. Bangladeshi islamists want to reduce the country to a tier-3 colony.