Thank you for engaging in the recent discussion about food inflation in Bangladesh. It's refreshing to finally see some rational analysis in this often emotionally-charged debate. Your data-driven approach and clear graphical presentation cut through much of the noise that typically surrounds this topic.
Your analysis stands out significantly among Bangladesh-focused economists and policy analysts. I strongly encourage you to consider publishing an op-ed in a mainstream newspaper, particularly featuring those illuminating graphs. This kind of clear, evidence-based analysis is exactly what our public discourse needs right now.
However, I wanted to address one specific point about the retail market structure in Bangladesh. While many attribute the abundance of small retailers to unemployment, I believe the core issue lies in regulatory uncertainty. The absence of large-scale retailers in our market isn't due to lack of opportunity or capability – it's about risk.
Large retailers face a disproportionate risk of government intervention, particularly accusations of "price manipulation." This regulatory sword of Damocles effectively prevents the natural evolution of our retail sector. When a business grows beyond a certain size, it becomes an easy target for such interventions, creating a powerful disincentive for scale.
The government has attempted to address regulatory uncertainty in other sectors of the economy, particularly in energy investments, through mechanisms like guaranteed profit floors and tax exemptions. However, I'm skeptical about whether these tools are appropriate for the retail sector. True market efficiency will only come when businesses can operate with reasonable certainty about their regulatory environment, through:
1. Establishment of clear, consistent rule of law
2. Regulatory certainty that doesn't change with political winds
3. Protection from arbitrary accusations of price manipulation
I had written a lot about the Asian riceflation of 2007-08 back then. The ramp up in rice prices doomed the 1/11 regime, which was already struggling with prices because of their 'syndicate-busting' efforts. And, Hasina reaped the political dividend of falling prices. When you've been around long enough, sadly everything seems like a rinse and repeat!
I haven't listened to the podcast yet but I'm going to link this for now. Can't wait to hear stupid middle class takes on "syndicates" and the like.
https://youtu.be/rWGre1zLYBw
While I hate to stop anyone from speaking their mind, I will have to ask you to stop commenting until you’ve actually listened or read something.
Thank you for engaging in the recent discussion about food inflation in Bangladesh. It's refreshing to finally see some rational analysis in this often emotionally-charged debate. Your data-driven approach and clear graphical presentation cut through much of the noise that typically surrounds this topic.
Your analysis stands out significantly among Bangladesh-focused economists and policy analysts. I strongly encourage you to consider publishing an op-ed in a mainstream newspaper, particularly featuring those illuminating graphs. This kind of clear, evidence-based analysis is exactly what our public discourse needs right now.
However, I wanted to address one specific point about the retail market structure in Bangladesh. While many attribute the abundance of small retailers to unemployment, I believe the core issue lies in regulatory uncertainty. The absence of large-scale retailers in our market isn't due to lack of opportunity or capability – it's about risk.
Large retailers face a disproportionate risk of government intervention, particularly accusations of "price manipulation." This regulatory sword of Damocles effectively prevents the natural evolution of our retail sector. When a business grows beyond a certain size, it becomes an easy target for such interventions, creating a powerful disincentive for scale.
The government has attempted to address regulatory uncertainty in other sectors of the economy, particularly in energy investments, through mechanisms like guaranteed profit floors and tax exemptions. However, I'm skeptical about whether these tools are appropriate for the retail sector. True market efficiency will only come when businesses can operate with reasonable certainty about their regulatory environment, through:
1. Establishment of clear, consistent rule of law
2. Regulatory certainty that doesn't change with political winds
3. Protection from arbitrary accusations of price manipulation
I had written a lot about the Asian riceflation of 2007-08 back then. The ramp up in rice prices doomed the 1/11 regime, which was already struggling with prices because of their 'syndicate-busting' efforts. And, Hasina reaped the political dividend of falling prices. When you've been around long enough, sadly everything seems like a rinse and repeat!
The more the world changes the more the world stays the same.