> I expect a peaceful, democratic transition by next winter. I expect parliamentary elections will happen by then, with an elected government in power before Ramadan of 2026. The elected parliament will pass constitutional amendments to reflect agreements among the key pro-democracy politicians — I expect the agreement to be struck in 2025, but the amendment will have to wait till 2026. I expect the economy to stabilise this year, with a strong recovery underway by the time of the election.
I think the constitutional amendments will passed before the election or won't be passed at all. There is no incentive for an elected government to change the rules under which it gained power. Maybe they will be some symbolic shit like moving from secularism to pluralism.
I don't expect a strong recovery but a stabilisation. GDP growth is around 3-5 percent. No the 5-7 percent of my youth.
> That is, I am optimistic about 2025. The major caveat to this view is that Professor Yunus is 84 and there is no forecasting of life and death!
Speak for yourself. Yunus will live till 90 at least unless he gets assassinated.
Here's my version.
1. Will Israel and the US strike Iran's nuclear plants? NO
2. Will Bitcoin hit $200,000? DON'T KNOW AND DON'T CARE
3. Will India's GDP overtake Japan's? NO
4. Will electric vehicles make up more than a quarter of global auto sales? YES
5. Will Javier Milei lift Argentina's exchange controls? YES
6. Will the war in Sudan continue? DON'T KNOW AND DON'T CARE
7. Will we have AI agents we can use? YES
8. Will there be another big Hollywood studio deal? DON'T KNOW AND DON'T CARE
9. Will CDs begin a long-term revival similar to vinyl? DON'T KNOW AND DON'T CARE
10. Will the bond market buckle? DON'T KNOW AND DON'T CARE
11. Will China's carbon emissions fall? YES
12. Will Britain's Labour government stick to its promise not to raise taxes further? DON'T KNOW AND DON'T CARE
13. Will Donald Trump start a full-scale tariff war? YES
14. Will there be a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia? NO
15. Will US interest rates end the year lower than now? YES
16. Will Emmanuel Macron survive as French president? YES
17. Will the Magnificent Seven take a fall? NO
18. Will Chinese export prices fall further? YES
19. Will Elon Musk and Donald Trump fall out? YES
20. Will Germany relax its debt brake? YES
> I expect a peaceful, democratic transition by next winter. I expect parliamentary elections will happen by then, with an elected government in power before Ramadan of 2026. The elected parliament will pass constitutional amendments to reflect agreements among the key pro-democracy politicians — I expect the agreement to be struck in 2025, but the amendment will have to wait till 2026. I expect the economy to stabilise this year, with a strong recovery underway by the time of the election.
I think the constitutional amendments will passed before the election or won't be passed at all. There is no incentive for an elected government to change the rules under which it gained power. Maybe they will be some symbolic shit like moving from secularism to pluralism.
I don't expect a strong recovery but a stabilisation. GDP growth is around 3-5 percent. No the 5-7 percent of my youth.
> That is, I am optimistic about 2025. The major caveat to this view is that Professor Yunus is 84 and there is no forecasting of life and death!
Speak for yourself. Yunus will live till 90 at least unless he gets assassinated.