The game is afoot
Geopolitical questions and Bangladesh
Sixty years ago this week, Chinese forces routed Indian defence on two sides of the subcontinent a thousand kilometres apart. Ramifications were felt across the Radcliffe Lines too. President Biden’s tete a tete with Xi Jinping notwithstanding, we are once again in an era of superpower competition for influence.
As the Great Game returns to the delta, this post is a list of questions for anyone interested in a democratic Bangladesh to ponder over.
Does the Biden Administration really believe that it is democracy and human rights that is fundamental to any Cold War 2.0? Or is it really about stopping China by any means necessary?
Regardless of the answer, it is perhaps safe to assume that it is not in American interest to let Bangladesh slip into Chinese orbit because of economic mishaps. The question then is, how can that be prevented?
Is this why Bangladesh is getting loans from the IMF and other western institutions on relatively easy conditions?
Yes, based on public information, Bangladesh is getting IMF loans with very loose strings attached. All it needs to do are some textbook technical stuff around the banks and interest and exchange rates. And yet, will the regime be able to do this?
What if, having availed the finances to stabilize the economy, the regime backtracks and goes over to the Chinese bloc anyway?
Will a non-democratic alternative to the regime have the legitimacy / political capital / authority to either fix the economy or side with the west in Cold War 2.0?Is this going be further complicated by the India factor?
Arguably, a democratically elected government will have the political capital to stabilise the economy as well as ally with the west. But why should Bangladesh’s democratic opposition choose west over China given the historical baggage?
Arguably, west must demonstrate its democratic credentials as well as benefits of democracy to a Dhaka audience, to whom there are no self-evident truths. What does this mean in practice?
Not only does this song have vintage footage from the time, with its reference to fatah ke jashn and the line to protect Sita from Ravan, it is also a great exemplar of Hindustan that is no more.
Further reading
CPEC is dead. Somebody tell Beijing
Farooq Tirmizi, 30 May 2019
As goes India, so goes democracy
Suketu Mehta, 15 Aug 2022
Saifuddin Saif, 11 Sep 2022
Kevin Rudd, 25 Oct 2022
Noah Smith, 26 Oct 2022