Countdown 3: the damage below the boat's waterline

Where does the Awami League stand today, 18 months after the July Uprising, and is there any way back for the party post-February 12?

About 33.6 million people voted for the Awami League in the 2008 election.

Even after adjusting for the mortality over the years, there will be around 30 million voters (out of a total 127 million, or about 24 percent) on February 12 who would have voted for the boat at least once in the past, even discounting the last three elections.

According to various opinion polls and qualitative field surveys, perhaps 8 percent of voters may still prefer the Awami League. To put that in historical context, in the 1979 election, around 13 percent of total voters voted for the party. That election was in the aftermath of the macabre dance of deluge and death of 1974-75. Almost the entirety of the Awami League’s top leadership was either dead or discredited. The party ran against an extremely able and popular president. And yet, its support was arguably stronger than where the party finds itself now.

Let’s put these numbers together.

If the voter turnout on February 12 is over 76 percent -- and according to various published opinion polls, turnout could well be higher -- then there will have been some former Awami League voters who will have voted in this election, even though there is no candidate for boat. And, perhaps two out of every three people who voted for boat in 2008 no longer support the party.

Will the boat ever float again, or has it sunk forever?

Let’s go back to the late 1970s. Yes, the party’s top leadership was dead or stood discredited. However, over time, there also grew a reservoir of remorse across the political spectrum for the victims of the 1975 coups -- a family was massacred, including women and children, people were bayonetted in jail.

Contrast that with today.

The architect of the biggest political violence in independent Bangladesh resides safely in New Delhi without remorse or regret. Here is smell of blood still, as far as Sheikh Hasina is concerned.

As long as Sheikh Hasina remains at the helm, the party remains at a dead end. There is no instance in history where a murderous despot returns to power through democratic means.

It is inconceivable for her to lead the party out of the wilderness. And at the same time, in our political culture, is it at all credible for someone else to lead the party without Hasina’s formal blessing?

Of course, the disgraced despot is an elderly person with health issues. There will be a natural end to her leadership. If the legal restrictions on the party’s activities are lifted, the party could well revive under a new leadership.

After all, opinion polls suggest that the Awami League is in fact more popular than the party formed by the July leaders. And there are pockets of the country, accounting for up to 30 constituencies, where the party could be competitive.

So, the boat may set sail again. Someday.

But that day isn’t February 12. The party is barred from running in the election. But when there is a ban on a party, its candidates often run as independent -- for example, Tehrik-e-Insaaf candidates running as independents in Pakistan after Imran Khan was toppled.

However, it would appear that local level Awami League leaders are not running as independents even in these 30-odd Awami strongholds.

Take Khulna-1 for example: where around two out of five voters are of the minority community, the Communist Party of Bangladesh was once upon a time the largest non-Awami party, Sheikh Hasina won in 1996, most of the past MPs have been from AL, and Jamaat has nominated a Hindu candidate.

This would have been exactly the kind of place where a local Awami Leaguer could have won as an independent. Except no such person is running!

The absence of independent Awami candidates will likely matter for our politics. At the local level in these 30 or so seats where the party had never lost, other parties will now have a chance to organize and build patronage networks.

Meanwhile, beyond the party’s core geographic strongholds and hardcore base, the two-thirds of those who voted for boat in 2008 but have disembarked since -- their choices will likely have profound implications too.

According to the Innovision poll from late summer, majority of AL supporters may vote BNP this time. Others report similar findings.

Perhaps the former AL supporters are persuaded by Tarique Rahman’s commitment to peace, stability, and the values of the Liberation War. Perhaps they are petrified by the prospects of a Jamaat victory.

Whatever it is, if a large number of former Awami voters end up voting for BNP on February 12, that party could well win a thumping victory.

But the question is: having switched to BNP, will these voters remain with their new party? Only time will tell.

First published at the Weekly Counterpoint.

Further reading

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• The Sheikh Hasina trial: ‘Justice’ and a fair judicial process

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