In the subcontinent, Tamil Nadu is probably the state whose politics is closest to ours. A two party system where both parties are pro market and pro industrialisation. But they differentiate themselves on identity and/or corruption. Although I'll admit my understanding of their politics is very general and second hand.
My worry is that youth of today are going to bring welfarism and islamism to politics. Welfarism and islamism will go well together too since the main constituency of islamism is not the rural poor but the unemployed urban middle class. Basically people who are too lazy to do a blue collar job but stupid for a white collar one.
The likely scenarios for the Bangladesh in 5 years.
1) Islamist takeover like post 1979 Iran. 20%
2) Military takeover of government like Egypt after Arab Spring. 30%
3) Federalism + electoral reform like Indonesia after dictatorship in the 90s. 10%
4) Current politicians lose the mandate because of incompetence or having to do tough IMF reforms. Then Hasina or her son comes back to Bangladesh and wins a legit election. She is less authoritarian this time around because she is in coalition with new political actors. However there will be a long term decline for BAL's electoral success as the rest of the political scene matures. Like India after 1973 emergency. 40%.
In the subcontinent, Tamil Nadu is probably the state whose politics is closest to ours. A two party system where both parties are pro market and pro industrialisation. But they differentiate themselves on identity and/or corruption. Although I'll admit my understanding of their politics is very general and second hand.
My worry is that youth of today are going to bring welfarism and islamism to politics. Welfarism and islamism will go well together too since the main constituency of islamism is not the rural poor but the unemployed urban middle class. Basically people who are too lazy to do a blue collar job but stupid for a white collar one.
The likely scenarios for the Bangladesh in 5 years.
1) Islamist takeover like post 1979 Iran. 20%
2) Military takeover of government like Egypt after Arab Spring. 30%
3) Federalism + electoral reform like Indonesia after dictatorship in the 90s. 10%
4) Current politicians lose the mandate because of incompetence or having to do tough IMF reforms. Then Hasina or her son comes back to Bangladesh and wins a legit election. She is less authoritarian this time around because she is in coalition with new political actors. However there will be a long term decline for BAL's electoral success as the rest of the political scene matures. Like India after 1973 emergency. 40%.
What odds would you place on these scenarios?