2026 predictions
Continued democratic transition and an economic recovery, plus a chance to test your prognostications
2025 was a tumultuous year, but as far as Bangladesh is concerned, things are on track for the peaceful democratic transition that I had predicted a year ago:
I expect a peaceful, democratic transition by next winter. I expect parliamentary elections will happen by then, with an elected government in power before Ramadan of 2026. The elected parliament will pass constitutional amendments to reflect agreements among the key pro-democracy politicians — I expect the agreement to be struck in 2025, but the amendment will have to wait till 2026. I expect the economy to stabilise this year, with a strong recovery underway by the time of the election.
Okay, the strong economic recovery hasn’t quite happened. But the rest — parliamentary elections and an elected government in power before Ramadan of 2026 — we should see in a fortnight.
What about global stuff? I got 12 out of 20 right in the Financial Times forecast challenge. Turns out, the FT pundits got seven wrong, so my eight isn’t that bad.
Will Donald Trump start a full-scale tariff war? YES. RIGHT.
Will there be a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia? YES. WRONG.
Will US interest rates end the year lower than now? NO. WRONG
Will Emmanuel Macron survive as French president? YES. RIGHT
Will the Magnificent Seven take a fall? YES. Gillian Tett says otherwise, noting the fall will probably come later. WRONG
Will Chinese export prices fall further? YES. WRONG.
Will Elon Musk and Donald Trump fall out? YES. Edward Luce differs, but I think the egos will clash sooner rather than later. RIGHT.
Will Germany relax its debt brake? YES. RIGHT.
Will the bond market buckle? NO, but I was tempted to say yes — America might experience a fiscal event in the next four years, but probably not in 2025. RIGHT.
Will China’s carbon emissions fall? NO. It was flat, so I am saying RIGHT.
Will Britain’s Labour government stick to its promise not to raise taxes further? YES. WRONG.
Will Israel and the US strike Iran’s nuclear plants? NO. WRONG.
Will Bitcoin hit $200,000? NO. Nikou Asgari says the opposite, but come on! RIGHT.
Will India’s GDP overtake Japan’s? NO. WRONG.
Will electric vehicles make up more than a quarter of global auto sales? NO. WRONG.
Will Javier Milei lift Argentina’s exchange controls? YES. RIGHT.
Will the war in Sudan continue? YES. RIGHT.
Will we have AI agents we can use? YES. RIGHT.
Will there be another big Hollywood studio deal? YES. RIGHT.
Will CDs begin a long-term revival similar to vinyl? NO. RIGHT.
What about 2026? My answers to the Financial Times 2026 challenge are as follows.
Will Trump’s tariffs on average end the year higher than now? NO.
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be forced to give up the Donbas as part of a peace deal for Ukraine? NO. But I should note that I have been consistently wrong about Ukraine.
Will Republicans lose control of Capitol Hill? YES.
Will the AI bubble burst? YES.
Will France hold snap elections? NO.
Will China’s renminbi appreciate? NO.
Will the firewall against Germany’s AfD collapse? NO.
Will Sanae Takaichi still be Japan’s prime minister a year from now? YES.
Will central banks cease the rate-cutting cycle? NO.
Will Keir Starmer face a leadership challenge? YES.
Will more private credit ‘cockroaches’ emerge and cause significant losses? YES.
Will Saudi Arabia normalise relations with Israel? NO.
Will we have home robots? YES.
Will African growth outstrip Asian growth? YES.
Will the gold price go above $5,000 an ounce? YES.
Will we have a robust, commercially viable quantum computer in operation? NO.
Will Lula win a record fourth term as Brazilian president? YES.
Will an entirely AI-generated song top the charts? YES.
Will Elon Musk’s Tesla reverse its market share declines in the US, the EU and China? NO.
Will a woman rank in the top 50 best-paid athletes? NO.
Turning to Bangladesh, we at the Weekly Counterpoint thought we would do our own forecasting challenge. Do participate — submissions close 11 Feb.
And here is how Zafar Sobhan and I see 2026.
Broadly speaking, I continue to expect a democratic transition and an economic recovery.
Further reading
Branko Milanovic, 27 Oct 2022
Pelé radiated the quality of joy: an instant appeal to the eye and heart
Richard Williams, 30 Dec 2022
The ripple effects of Sudan’s war are being felt across three continents
The Economist, 29 Aug 2024
Tom Standage’s ten trends to watch in 2026
10 Nov 2025
Rethinking Bangladesh-Türkiye relations
Asif Bin Ali, 23 Dec 2025
Ken Opalo, 8 Jan 2026