2022 Predictions
Not really a good year for many
Shafquat Rabbee has made a set of forecasts that he wishes to be judged against in the years to come. I think this is an excellent idea. Anyone who writes about politics and society and other matters of public interest should, from time to time, write down their calls and hold themselves to account.
By forecasting and being judged, I do not mean perfect foresight is the standard we aspire to. We are not sorcerers and clairvoyants. We are fallible students of society, and the calls we make are likely to be wrong. Tyler Cowen, an American polymath, gives an example of how we should think about ‘calling things right’.
I propose to write down a few specific statements, and for each, an explanation noting the assumptions and mechanism — essentially, a set of conditional forecasts: I assume X and Y will happen this year, and if they do, I predict Z by next year. This way, if we are wrong, we would be able to track where and how we went off track.
Let’s begin with the seven predictions Rabbee makes, and note my calls.
Covid
Rabbee says ‘2022 will be the year when most parts of the world will move on with this virus.’
My conditional statement:
Assuming that the virus does not mutate to a more-lethal-than-delta variant, by the end of 2022, we will learn to live with Covid by regularly using masks and taking vaccine shots, but not shutting down the economy every few months.
Inflation
Rabbee says ‘Inflation will normalize by the end of 2022 / early 2023, at least in advanced economies’.
I agree. By normalisation, I mean core CPI inflation of 2-3 percent in the advanced economies by the last quarter of 2022 or the first quarter of 2023.
However, I would note that the real question here is whether the normalisation will be a smooth or bumpy process. Will the Fed be able to engineer a soft landing? Or will the monetary tightening lead to a US recession (not very likely) and / or a bout of volatility in various financial markets (very likely).
US elections
Rabbee makes conditional forecasts: ‘Trump stays, Socialists stay. Trump gone, Socialists finished.’
I agree with the broad assessment. But Trump is not on the ballot in 2022. I am going to go with the easy prediction of ‘Republicans will win the mid-term’ — it’s an easy prediction because the president’s party usually loses the mid-term.
Bangladesh
Rabbee says ‘(The) regime will survive just fine in the near term’.
I agree with his broad assessment. My conditional statement: Assuming that the Prime Minister is healthy — she is old, and hasn’t had an easy life — the regime will remain in power at the end of 2022.
US-China Cold War 2.0
Rabbee says ‘The cold war 2.0 will only intensify.’ I agree with the assessment. He gives a few examples of what this means in practice. My take it is that none of his specific examples will be discernable in 2022. As such, let me make this statement: Assuming that Xi Jinping remains in power, here will be no US-China detente or rapprochement in 2022.
Turkey
Rabbee has a detailed scenario here, which ends with ‘Erdogan will leave the scene as a defeated man’. I agree with his assessment that Turkey will face increasing financial meltdown. I also agree that there won’t be a coup or uprising. Nonetheless, I expect Erdogan to remain in power in 12 month’s time.
Afghanistan
Rabbee says ‘total collapse’. I agree. But what does that even mean in the context of Afghanistan? I expect the humanitarian tragedy to worsen, with tens of thousands, perhaps more, dying of famine. And I expect the world to simply shrug — do not underestimate the world’s ability to not care about the plight of the Afghans. I suspect Taleban will remain in power in 12 month’s time.
In addition to the calls Rabbee makes, I am also going to note my answers to the Financial Times annual predictions challenge.
Will a more infectious variant than Delta and Omicron come to dominate global coronavirus cases? YES.
Clive Cookson answers Yes for the FT. I agree, noting the question is for a more ‘infectious’ variant, not a more lethal one.
Will inflation be back at the US Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent target by year-end? NO.
Martin Wolf says No. I agree, noting that by ‘normalisation’, I mean 2-3 percent core inflation, which is not the same as ‘at 2 percent’.
Will the Great Resignation end? YES.
Delphine Strauss says Yes. I agree. Part of normalisation.
Will national climate plans finally be enough to limit warming to the 1.5C target by COP27 in Egypt? NO.
Pilita Clark says no. I agree. Hard to be optimistic on climate.
Will the UK’s Boris Johnson face a no-confidence vote from his MPs? YES.
Robert Shrimsley says yes. I think this might come true much earlier than he expected.
Will France elect a far-right president? NO.
Anne-Sylvaine Shassany says no. I agree. The French have a fail-safe in their two rounds of voting.
Will Russia invade Ukraine? NO.
Ben Hall says no. I agree. Not in 2022.
Will Democrats lose control of Congress in November? YES.
Edward Luce says yes. I agree. See above.
Will the US Supreme Court give states free rein to ban abortion? YES.
Brooke Masters says yes. I agree. It’s already happening.
Will China invade Taiwan? NO.
James Kynge says no. I agree. Not in 2022.
Will Myanmar’s military consolidate its grip? YES.
John Reed says no. I disagree. ‘With the economy in freefall and the coup proving a failure, the generals’ playbook of rerunning the 2020 election their proxy party lost looks fanciful.’ He says. But there is more than one way for the military to consolidate its grip. A more brutal civil war, futher fragmentation of the country, and military consolidating its grip on the bit that it controls — the world cares even less about the people of Myanmar than they do about the Afghans.
Can Iran be prevented from developing a nuclear weapon? YES.
Andrew England says yes. I agree, at least in 2022.
Will African countries manage to vaccinate 70 per cent of their populations? NO.
David Pilling says no. I agree.
Will Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro remain in power? NO.
Michael Stott says no. I agree.
Will the S&P 500 fall by more than 10 per cent? YES.
Katie Martin says yes. I agree. Disinflation will not be a smooth process.
Will America’s Section 230 be reformed to curb Big Tech? NO.
Rana Foroohar says no. I agree. It’s a difficult issue, and the American political process can’t handle these things in an election year.
Will Tesla shares end the year higher than now? YES.
John Thornhill says yes because ‘… they have become alternative NFTs: non- financial tickets to the future. There remain more buyers than sellers of that particular kind of token.’ I agree with him. But I am not putting my money on Tesla stock.
Will many other countries follow China’s crypto clampdown? NO.
Laura Noonan says no. I agree. But honestly, I have no idea.
Will more musicians confront the power of the streaming giants? YES.
Ludovic Hunter-Tilney says yes. I agree. But again, what do I know!
Will the bubble in art-related NFTs burst? YES.
Jan Dalley says no. I am going to say yes because I expect money to be tighter. But again, I have no idea.
Overall, I guess no war in Ukraine or Taiwan is a good thing, but I am not exactly optimistic about the near future!
So good to read this sort of column a couple of years later. Your Ukraine prediction failed spectacularly early!